With concerns about equine welfare and casualty rates growing, the Grand National was altered ahead of its 2024 edition.
The field size was reduced from 40 to 34 to minimise some of the chaos at the fences, while the distance between the start and the first fence is around 60 yards closer – reducing the speed at which the horses take it.
The height of some fences was lowered, with foam and rubber boards added to the obstacles to improve safety. The traditional on-course parade pre-race has been ended, which could see some of the horses get a little bit too amped up, while the earlier start time of helps the Aintree track to remain in optimal condition.
The changes, for the most part, have worked. The 2024 edition saw eleven horses fail to finish, but there were no fallers – seven were pulled up and four unseated their riders.
In 2025, there were three fallers, one brought down and an unseated rider, with 13 of the runners pulled up before the end of the race on increasingly dry ground.
If some of the variance has been taken away from the race, does that mean that favourites are more likely to prosper?
Let’s take a look at the numbers…
Backing the Favourites in the Grand National
Given the success of the Willie Mullins-Paul Townend combination at the Cheltenham Festival and in their native Ireland, it’s perhaps no surprise that the pair are well scouted at the Grand National.
Heading into the 2024 edition of the Aintree showpiece, Mullins – remarkably – hadn’t won the Grand National in almost 20 years. But, even so, punters were bullish about I Am Maximus, backing the Townend ride into 7/1 joint favouritism.
On soft ground, the 2024 Grand National was about staying around and giving yourself a chance – even accounting for the more lenient conditions. Townend did exactly that aboard I Am Maximus, making headway with two to jump before kicking on after the last.
The JP McManus owned horse had plenty left in the tank despite the gruelling four-mile, two-furlong trip, staying on to win by more than seven lengths to leave Mullins – and punters – celebrating an overdue victory.
It was a bad result for the bookmakers, who reported lower-than-expected turnover on the race… before having to pay out on a popular winner.
The places offered a decent payout to backers too:
Grand National 2024 Result
| Position | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | I Am Maximus | Willie Mullins | Paul Townend | 7/1 JF |
| 2nd | Delta Work | Gordon Elliott | Jack Kennedy | 28/1 |
| 3rd | Minella Indo | Henry De Bromhead | Rachael Blackmore | 28/1 |
| 4th | Galvin | Gordon Elliott | Sam Ewing | 40/1 |
| 5th | Kitty’s Light | Christian Williams | Jack Tudor | 12/1 |
Even though their prices don’t necessarily reflect as much, the likes of Delta Work and Minella Indo were well backed by casual punters thanks to their previous Cheltenham Festival exploits.
The 2025 race was more complex, with good-to-soft ground rapidly drying out on a warm enough and breezy day at Aintree.
That perhaps helps to explain the relatively low number of finishers, compared to a year earlier, and perhaps also explains why I Am Maximus, shoved up the weights by the handicapper to 11st 10lb, was outpaced in the home straight by 33/1 chance Nick Rockett.
Grand National 2025 Result
| Position | Horse | Trainer | Jockey | SP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | Nick Rockett | Willie Mullins | Patrick Mullins | 33/1 |
| 2nd | I Am Maximus | Willie Mullins | Paul Townend | 7/1 |
| 3rd | Grangeclare West | Willie Mullins | Brian Hayes | 33/1 |
| 4th | Iroko | Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero | Jonjo O’Neill Jr | 13/2 F |
| 5th | Meetingofthewaters | Willie Mullins | Danny Mullins | 20/1 |
Iroko, the 13/2 favourite, finished in fourth, with Grangeclare West (33/1) and Meetingofthewaters (20/1) rounding out the places.
Mullins saddled four of those horses, which was perhaps as strong a punting clue as any…
Grand National Winner Trends and Patterns
The current favourite for this year’s race is 2024 winner I Am Maximus
The two editions of the Grand National in this new, ‘safer’ era have yielded a joint-favourite as winner and two well-fancied horses in second and fourth in 2025.
So it hasn’t been a slam dunk for the market protagonists, which is a trend confirmed by the fact that only three editions since 2010 have been won by the favourite or joint-favourite.
One of the most telling factors is typically the handicap weights, with only one horse – Many Clouds in 2015 – winning the Grand National while carrying more than 11st 8lb since Red Rum in 1974.
A continuation of that trend in 2026 would see a host of fancied runners – including I Am Maximus, Grangeclare West, Haiti Couleurs and defending champion Nick Rockett – come unstuck.
Here’s a bizarre pattern: only one of the last eleven Grand National winners had run in the race before, with 8/11 previously winning in Graded company.
The good news for Aintree officials is that cooler weather and some rain is heading in after a warm and sunny start to the week, but expectations are that the going will be good-to-soft come Saturday – advantaging those with a strong sprint finish in the locker.
As to who will win the 2026 Grand National… only time will tell. But, given the results of the last two editions in the new race conditions, there’s every chance that one or more of the favourites will be there or thereabouts.