The thing about electing a geriatric to the highest position in the Roman Catholic Church, is that you inevitably need to elect a new one every decade or so.
Much like betting on politics, bookmakers see this as an opportunity to make some money, so odds on the next Pope are fairly frequent if you look in their Special Bets sections.
I’m being a little disingenuous here, as many Popes are elected in their 60s and even late 50s. However, that didn’t stop Pope John Paul I popping his clogs just 33 days after being elected aged 65. Then again, his successor, Pope John Paul II did the job for 23 years before he shuffled off this mortal coil.
This is why bookmakers offer the market, though. After a certain age, you never know if someone is going to unexpectedly drop dead or keep going for another 30 years into their 90s.
Most people wouldn’t know the face or name of a single prospective pontiff, but people still bet on it. That’s weird, right? Unless all those making wagers are members of the clergy. But the idea that swathes of bishops, monks, and vicars rush to the bookies when the Pope dies is weird, too.
Death of Pope Francis in 2025
On the 21st of April 2025, Pope Francis died, aged 88. He had been Pope for just over 12 years.
The bookies immediately leapt into action, creating markets for his successor. This lead to a list of names no one has ever heard of appearing on bookmaker’s websites.
There were 135 eligible cardinals who theoretically could have been elected as Pope, but most bookies narrowed it down to a top 50 or so. With it being a market that few odds makers have any real expertise in, the odds varied, but at Paddy Power, the front runners were:
- Pietro Parolin – 3.75
- Luis Antonio Tagle – 4.33
- Matteo Zuppi – 5.5
- Peter Turkson – 5.5
- Robert Sarah – 7.5
- Pierbattista Pizzaballa – 7.5
I would have voted for Pierbattista Pizzaballa based on his name alone. What a delicious sounding Pope.
Speaking of names, this is actually another market some bookies offered.
Each Pope chooses a new papal name for themselves. It might be the same of a Saint, biblical figure, or of a previous Pope. Technically they could pick anything, they could call themself Duncan if they wanted to, but they never do.
Missed opportunity if you ask me.
Mr. Pizzaballa aside, these people are all serious options that could genuinely get the gig. However, bookies have had some fun with this market in the past…
Funny Next Pope Candidates
Although odds weren’t officially offered on Donald Trump becoming the next Pope in 2025, his name did come up. That’s because when asked who he thought would be a good fit he suggested himself.
He was kidding, though. I think. I hope.
On previous occasions, some really funny names were thrown into the mix and given odds.
It started in 2002 when Paddy Power slipped Father Dougal McGuire into a list of potential next Popes. This was doubly offensive to some, because Pope John Paul II was still alive at this point, and speculating on the Pope’s death is… frowned upon. He died in 2005, and Dougal McGuire was again listed – at odds of 100,000/1.
And guess what? People bet on it. The bookie had to reduce the odds to 500/1 in response.
In 2013 the novelty appeal of next Pope betting really took off, with Paddy Power and Betfair being the main culprits, but Coral, Stan James and a few others got involved as well. Some of the silly suggestions included:
- Bono at 1,000/1 – He think he’s the Pope anyway.
- Richard Dawkins at 666/1 – A famous evolutionist and atheist. Note the ‘devilish’ odds for extra comedy value.
- Lance Armstrong at 10,000/1 – Disgraced cyclist. Someone stuck a quid on him.
- Silvio Berlusconi at 2,500/1 – The ex Prime Minister of Italy with an eye for the ladies.
- Tony Blair at 5,000/1 – He converted to Catholicism a few years previous.
- Madonna at 2,000/1 – Her stage name references the Virgin Mary. Women aren’t even eligible to become Pope.
- José Mourinho at 1,000/1 – The special one, perhaps, but not that special!
- Bob Geldof at 1,000/1 – See my comment on Bono.
A few famous Italian footballers were also thrown into the mix.
Hilariously, some of these absurd suggestions actually took more bets than the real cardinals who were eligible for election.
Other Markets
It’s not just the next Pope punters can bet on. A Pope is elected via as many rounds of voting as it takes to get a two thirds majority, so there are odds on how many rounds it will take to elect him, too, or how many days it will take.
How it works, is a bunch of cardinals get together to form a papal conclave, and they disappear into the Sistine Chapel where they stay until a decision is reached. One of these men will be the next Pope. The whole thing is very secret, totally shut off from the outside world.
They all take part in rounds of voting, and after each round the ballots are burned, and the smoke from burning them goes up the chimney. If black smoke comes out, it is a signal to the world that no Pope has been chosen in that round. When the chimney puffs out some white smoke, that means the conclave has elected a new pope.
They obviously put some kind of smoke bomb in there with the ballots or something, God doesn’t get involved in the colour of the smoke.
Anyway, people can take under/over markets on how many rounds of voting it will take to elect a new Pope. It usually takes between 4 and 8 rounds of voting with the cardinals being stuck in the chapel for 2 or 3 days.
This is often a better market for bettors who know nothing about any of the potential pontiffs.
These markets were available in 2013
In the past there have been lots of alternative Pope betting markets, but again, bookies have toned down their markets since then, and sadly, the comedy bets seem to be behind us.