You know it’s been a good time for punters when the bookmakers are bemoaning their luck.
The current NFL season has delivered what the bookies are describing as some of the most ‘customer friendly’ results in history, with the Flutter Group – who own Paddy Power and Betfair amongst others – claiming that they have lost more than £300 million due to a series of high-profile favourites obliging for punters.
And with a handful of weeks in the 2024/25 campaign still to be played, the bashing of the bookies might not be over just yet.
That Winning Feeling
The moaning of bookmakers is actually backed up by the facts: this has been the best NFL season for favourites winning in more than 20 years.
That has made the action somewhat predictable out on the pitch, but for punters seeking a higher win ratio with their bets, American football’s flagship league has come up trumps.
Of course, betting on sports is not a zero-sum game: when one party wins, the other loses. So it’s nice that the bookies are feeling the pain for once…
Flutter have been one of the most vocal betting operators in bemoaning their luck. They revealed that from November until December 31, the favourite won in 184 of the 256 NFL games played – of those, the winner was the most-backed team in 77% of the outings in question.
Many of those games had also featured high scores – punters typically favour the ‘overs’ side of the total points market, while one game between the San Francisco 49ers and the Detroit Lions featured nine different touchdown scorers… a handful of whom were well-backed in the Anytime TD market.
And there’s been tangible consequences for the likes of Flutter, who claim to have been taken for $390 million (£313 million) over the course of that span of games, while gross gaming revenue – a measure gambling firms use to calculate the amount taken in bets minus the amount paid in winnings – was £350 million lower than expected.
All of which has hit their underlying profitability hard; so much so, Flutter’s share price had fallen 6% from the middle of December to the opening bell of the stock market this morning (January 8).
Although they had a good weekend on the traditional version of football, with Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea – all well backed – failing to win, the bookies continue to get stung when it comes to American football.
Will that trend continue into the play-offs and even at the Super Bowl?
Motor City Meltdown
One of the bleakest days for the bookies in 2024 came on its very final day.
The Detroit Lions took on the San Francisco 49ers on New Year’s Eve, with everything that could go wrong for betting operators doing so.
The Lions, available at a best price of 1/2, snook home 40-34 courtesy of a fourth quarter touchdown from Jahmyr Gibbs; continuing the streak of odds-on favourites both winning the game and clearing their spread (handicap).
To make matters worse for the bookies, the overs side of the total points line, which was set at 49.5, was obliterated by the end of the third quarter.
Anytime touchdown scorer is becoming an increasingly popular betting market, with punters lapping it up in this Lions vs 49ers game: Gibbs, Jameson Williams, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Kyle Juszczyk all well-backed to cross into the end zone.
According to Flutter, this one contest alone saw them pay out $74 million (around £60 million) to punters around the globe.
The final gameweek of the regular season, played out across January 4-6, saw another slew of games clear their total points lines as the teams duked it out to qualify for the post-season.
NFL Week 18 Results in 2025
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 4th Jan | Baltimore Ravens | 35-10 | Cleveland Browns |
| Sun 5th Jan | Arizona Cardinals | 47-24 | San Francisco 49ers |
| Sun 5th Jan | Denver Broncos | 38-0 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| Sun 5th Jan | Los Angeles Rams | 25-30 | Seattle Seahawks |
| Sun 5th Jan | Las Vegas Raiders | 20-34 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| Sun 5th Jan | New York Jets | 32-20 | Miami Dolphins |
| Sun 5th Jan | Tennessee Titans | 14-23 | Houston Texans |
| Sun 5th Jan | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 27-19 | New Orleans Saints |
| Sun 5th Jan | Atlanta Falcons | 38-44 | Carolina Panthers |
| Sun 5th Jan | Green Bay Packers | 22-24 | Chicago Bears |
| Sun 5th Jan | Indianapolis Colts | 26-23 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| Sun 5th Jan | New England Patriots | 23-16 | Buffalo Bills |
| Sun 5th Jan | Philadelphia Eagles | 20-13 | New York Giants |
| Sun 5th Jan | Dallas Cowboys | 19-23 | Washington Commanders |
| Sun 5th Jan | Pittsburgh Steelers | 17-19 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| Mon 6th Jan | Detroit Lions | 31-9 | Minnesota Vikings |
The Baltimore Ravens won handsomely and cleared their spread against the Cleveland Browns, while the Sunday slate of games saw another ten favourites all win from odds-on positions.
Incredibly, ten of those fixtures also went over the total points line; given that most punters prefer the ‘overs’ to the ‘unders’ side, with fans preferring high scoring, entertaining games, this also hit the bookmakers hard, given that the line is usually set with odds around the 10/11 mark on either option.
It’s all rather ironic given that it was Flutter who reported as recently as November that NFL betting is surging in popularity with UK punters.
The firm noted ‘organic growth in NFL interest, an enhanced product offering, the halo impact from growth in soccer activity and our enhanced strategic focus on the NFL’ as reasons for why their betting brands were seeing more American football bets placed than ever before.
What timing!