ITV Pundit Correctly Predicts Epsom Derby 8,000/1 Tricast… Costing Coral Over £1 Million

Gold, Silver, and Bronze Medals on Chalkboard

Those that regularly watch ITV Racing’s coverage of the action will know that their panel of pundits, which includes esteemed former jockeys such as A.P. McCoy and Ruby Walsh, aren’t always on the ball when it comes to their pre-race tips and predictions.

That’s the nature of horse racing betting, of course: a pursuit that has befuddled many a punter over the past century.

But one ITV Racing analyst has come up trumps for viewers by predicting the 1-2-3 of the Epsom Derby… a mammoth 8,000/1 coup which, thanks to some savvy betting by punters backing the combination tricast, cost Coral more than £1 million in the space of five minutes.

Position Horse Start Price
1st Lambourn 13/2
2nd Lazy Griff 50/1
3rd Tennessee Stud 28/1

The 1-2-3 Kid

Gait of Blurred Horses Across Track

Kevin Blake is a genial Irishman that works for ITV and other racing media as something of a race analyst and tipster, using stride-length data to inform his predictions.

As is the case for anyone that bets on sport, he isn’t always right – but when he is, as unfolded on Saturday, it can be a glorious thing for anyone that follows him in.

Blake was asked for his opinion on the Epsom Derby, and after explaining his findings from the stride pattern analysis, he came up with three horses to back.

In something of a curveball, he eschewed betting market favourites such as Delacroix, The Lion in Winter and Ruling Court.

Instead, he focused on stamina as the rain fell on an already saturated Epsom track. Picking out Lambourn, who Blake confessed was Aidan O’Brien’s ‘third string’, the Irishman said:

“Lambourn is the one that is guaranteed to stay. I think he is going to stay further than and mile and a half in due course. He’ll be forward, he’ll make use of that stamina.”

Having predicted his expected winner, Blake turned to second place. Describing 33/1 outsider Tennessee Stud as ‘coming forward really well from a run at Leopardstown’, the pundit described the horse of Joseph O’Brien – his occasional employer – as a stayer that would love the give in the ground.

Rounding out Blake’s 1-2-3 was Lazy Griff, who while backed into 25/1 in the lead-up to the Epsom Derby was available at 50/1 on the morning of the race.

He’s a stayer that would love the ground, Blake suggested, confirming his unlikely tricast of 11/1, 33/1 and 50/1 picks. They had no chance of finishing 1-2-3, did they?

Three is the Magic Number

The fact that it rained cats and dogs on Epsom – unfortunately leading to a disastrous attendance – certainly helped Blake’s hardy band of staying non types.

Chester Vase winner Lambourn started strongly under the ride of Wayne Lordan, who was keen to set a fierce opening pace.

With two furlongs left to run, bookies’ favourites Delacroix and Pride of Arras were absolutely nowhere, with Lambourn still travelling smartly. He was pushed on in the home straight after others closed, however held on comfortably enough to complete a three-and-three-quarter length victory.

Behind him, there was a fair old battle for the places going on. Lazy Griff, Tennessee Stud, New Ground and Stanhope Gardens were all in the hunt, but it was Lazy Griff that stayed on for second and Tennessee Stud just about headed off the other pair by a neck.

Technically, if you had backed Blake’s 1-2-3 as an exact tricast you would have lost. But the combination forecast, which allows punters to name between three and six horses to finish in the top three in any order, paid out more than £8,000 on the pound, with the trifecta returning in excess of £3,400 on the pound.

Afterwards, ITV’s Oli Bell interviewed Blake, confirming from a source at Coral that they had lost more than £1 million on the tricast alone.

A spokesperson for Coral, Dave Stephens, said:

“Whilst the winner alone was not the worst result in the Derby book, further pain was inflicted by Kevin Blake, who incredibly put up the tricast on ITV’s The Opening Show.

“Plenty of viewers followed Kevin’s advice, to our considerable cost.”