They may have taken their time, but the Premier League – via an Independent Commission – has finally given their verdict on the long-standing charges hanging over Manchester City.
The Cityzens have been found guilty of pretty much all of them, with claims that they cooked their books to inflate sponsorship deals and commercial payments – in a bid to circumnavigate financial fair play rules.
And the Independent Commission has even judged that City deliberately misled auditors in a bid to hide the truth, while failing to cooperate with investigators.
Now, the Premier League must decide what punishment to dish out to Enzo Maresca’s side. This is an unprecedented situation, so there’s no previous cases to use as a guide.
Clubs have been fined, banned from transfer activity and deducted points before, but none have been found guilty of knowingly breaking financial rules over a period of nearly a decade.
Will the Premier League throw the book at Man City? That certainly seems likely… and punters have been tucking into the Cityzens to be relegated at prices ranging from 3/1 all the way down to 7/4.
Taking Their Time
It’s certainly a tempting proposition, as a points deduction of 75+ will presumably be enough to see City finish in the bottom three of the EPL table.
But before punters start availing themselves of such a selection, it’s worth considering the possible timeframe that the remainder of the case will play out over.
City have under October 2 to lodge an appeal, which they seem almost certain to do. So while the disciplinary process will be accelerated under new Premier League rules, with all hearings scheduled to be concluded within 12 weeks of opening, there are still appeals to be heard – those will take time.
However, one lever that the Cityzens cannot pull is to call on the Court of Arbitration for Sport (Cas). An agreement signed by Premier League clubs means that all cases involving the competition must be heard in the UK under our domestic law.
While the legal side of things should be concluded early in 2027, it’s likely City will do their best to delay proceedings – which means that any penalties they face may not take hold until the 2027/28 season.
Will Man City Be Relegated?
When you consider the list of ‘crimes’ that City have been found guilty of, it’s hard to imagine any other scenario than a massive points deduction:
- Created sham contracts with commercial partners that added £900 million to City’s revenue each year – and thus cheated financial fair play rules
- Deliberately concealed the true state of the club’s finances
- Repeatedly failed to assist, or obstructed, the Premier League in its investigation
There are even rumours – unsubstantiated, we must add – that City’s owners created fake companies to set up as partners, with the wealthy Abu Dhabi consortium then pushing their own money through as ‘sponsors’.
The scale of City’s cheating is unprecedented, and yet it’s so severe that a mammoth points deduction – amongst other sanctions – is practically unavoidable.
So yes, it’s perfectly possible that City WILL be relegated from the Premier League. But will it be in 2026/27?
Will Manchester City Be Sold?
The new Independent Football Regulator in the UK has a range of powers, but one of them is truly extraordinary: they have the ability to legally force the sale of a club where the owners are proven to have committed a serious enough offence.
“The IFR (Independent Football Regulator) will have the power to determine the suitability of prospective new and, under certain circumstances, incumbent owners,” reads the Football Governance Bill.
They might feel it necessary to consider the suitability of the Manchester City’s owners given that, as per the Premier League’s findings, they ‘had given evidence at the hearing that they knew to be untrue and so had been dishonest.’
Forcing the sale of a football club is an extraordinary measure; one that will have significant ramifications beyond the reach of the Football Governance Bill. But yes, it’s theoretically possible that Manchester City will be sold as part of the fall-out of the 115 charges investigation.
Will Haaland Leave Man City?
If City are relegated and their wealthy benefactors forced to sell up, how will their players see their immediate future in Manchester?
There will, you’d imagine, be a certain loyalty. When Juventus were administratively relegated to Serie B in 2006 as part of Italian football’s match fixing scandal, the likes of Alessandro Del Piero and Gigi Buffon stayed to be part of the rebuild.
However, many others – from Fabio Cannavaro and Zlatan Ibrahimovic to Lilian Thuram and Patrick Vieira – chose to leave… the career of a footballer is short, after all.
At the age of 26, Erling Haaland may feel he is entering his peak years as a player… would he want to spend a season in the Championship at this point in his career?