You’ve no doubt seen the ‘super sub’ style promotions that most mainstream bookmakers are now offering.
These cover the majority of the player-based betting markets, from goals and shots to tackles, fouls and cards. So, if the player you have bet on gets substituted, your wager will likely roll over to the player that replaces them – a double chance of success.
Sometimes, the substitution will work in a punter’s favour, with a player as likely – or, perhaps, more likely – subbed into the fray.
The World Cup has been a metaphorical bloodbath for the bookies in that regard. One leading bookie alone lost £30 million in the first eleven days of the tournament due to their substitute campaign, and they aren’t the only ones getting rail-ridden by punter-friendly outcomes.
Customer Favourite
France’s 3-1 win over Senegal was the jump-off point for the bookies’ woes.
Many backed Ousmane Dembele in the player bets, be it anytime goalscorer, shots or some other market. And why not: this is the reigning Ballon d’Or champion, after all.
Playing in an unfamiliar number ten role, Dembele didn’t have the best of times against Senegal and was substituted in the 80th minute. In his stead came Bradley Barcola, such is the strength of France’s squad, and he made hay in his short stint on the pitch.
Barcola had just 12 touches of the ball, but within them managed to have a shot on target – that beat the Senegalese goalkeeper and ended up in the back of the net, ensuring Dembele backers got their payout from an unexpected source.
Patriotic English backers got behind Anthony Gordon ahead of the Three Lions’ meeting with Croatia, but it was the player that was subbed on in his place – Marcus Rashford – that got on the scoresheet instead.
England defeated the Croatians 4-2, with a double celebration for those that had backed Gordon to score at any time.
And the good times have continued rolling since… although not for the bookies.
Reaping the Benefits
In an era of increasingly tough trading conditions for bookmakers, there is a fear that promotions like super sub may fall by the wayside.
Tighter regulation and increases in Gambling Tax duty have left the bookies with a headache in how they can cut costs – shutting high street shops and removing promotions some of the most likely targets.
But, for now at least, the super sub promo lives on… and punters continue to reap the benefits.
Belgium boss Rudi Garcia sprung a surprise in his side’s 5-1 win over New Zealand by not fielding Romelu Lukaku from the start.
Instead, Charles De Ketelaere got the nod in attack, but it was Lukaku – on as a late substitute – who found the net just seconds after taking to the field.
It was a good game for super sub backers, with Arsenal forward Leandro Trossard – well backed to score against the Kiwis – a popular punt.
He bagged a brace, while the man that replaced him – AC Milan’s Alexis Saelemaekers – also scored… so anyone backing Trossard to score a hat-trick landed an outstanding payday.
Argentina, already safely through to the knockout phase, took the opportunity to ring the changes and rotate their starting eleven against Jordan.
That meant no place for the rested Lionel Messi in their team, with Argentina’s front two – Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez – still very popular goalscorer picks given the nature of their opposition.
Martinez to score twice was a well backed option, and when the Inter Milan frontman netted from the penalty spot in the first half, that was a selection that looked very much on.
But with an hour played, Argentina head coach Lionel Scaloni decided enough was enough and substituted Martinez… bringing on some fella by the name of Lionel Messi in his place.
Super subs don’t get much better than one of the greatest of all time, and when Messi found the net it meant that Martinez 2+ goals backers also had another reason to celebrate.
Premier League fans who wanted some skin in the Brazil vs Japan last 32 game might just have had a flutter on Matheus Cunha to find the net.
And while the Manchester United star couldn’t oblige, his replacement – Arsenal’s Gabriel Martinelli – conjured up a late winner for the Brazilians to also secure a payout for Cunha fanciers.
How many more super subs will find the net during the World Cup?